California faces a dramatic demographic shift, with a 59% increase in Californians over 65 during the next fifteen years. At a virtual Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)  event earlier this month, co-authors Hans Johnson and Paulette Cha took questions from the audience. They shared key findings from their report, California’s Aging Population: Anticipating Dramatic Growth in the Number of Older Californians.

California Is About to Get Older

According to the new PPIC report, by 2040, over one in five Californians will be over age 65 (comprising 22% of all Californians, compared to 14% in 2020). The working-age population is expected to remain stable, but the number of children (under 17 years old) is expected to drop by 24%. In 2040, for every 100 working adults, there will be 38 older adults (compared to 24 in 2020), the highest proportion of older citizens ever recorded in California.

…and Poorer

California’s aging population will also require more support than in previous generations. Only seven in ten older adults are expected to be homeowners by 2040 – a slight decrease compared to 2020 (when 73% were homeowners). Older adults are also likely to have less monthly income than previous generations of older adults; many will be “housing rich, income poor.” This will especially present challenges to the 3 in 10 renters. They are expected to face significant financial burdens with lower incomes and increased housing costs.

…But Also More Diverse

According to the PPIC report, older adults require culturally and linguistically competent care. Older Californians will be more ethnically diverse, with no racial or ethnic group in the majority. The number of older adults born outside the United States will have risen to about 40% by 2040 (compared to 29% in 2020), a change driven by past immigration from Asia and Latin America. 

“Many of those who came to California mostly as young adults in the 1980s and onward,” Johnson explained, “are hitting retirement age or will do so over the next 20 years.”

Supports Needed

It is projected that in 2040, about 75% of older Latin American and Asian American adults will speak a language other than English at home. Johnson and Cha suggested that California will require a more diverse healthcare workforce to meet the needs of this changing demographic.

And while the percentage of older adults with incomes less than double the federal poverty level is expected to drop slightly (a projected 22% in 2040, compared with 24% in 2000), due to the increase in the sheer number of older adults, there will be approximately 600,000 more lower-income adults over age 65 in 2040. As this population struggles to pay the bills, PPIC expects that more adults aged 65-74 will be driven by financial necessity to continue working.

However, Johnson and Cha emphasized that California’s policymakers already have the measurement included to help plan for this shift. Johnson noted the state’s Master Plan on Aging, which outlines housing, healthcare, equity and inclusion, caregiving, and economic security strategies.

Paulette Cha also stressed that planning for different needs across more specific older age groups will be crucial.

“A lot of times when we talk about the older adult population, we paint that group—60-plus or 65-plus—with a really broad brush,” Cha warned, “when in fact there are really different stages within that age range.” 

Cha cited the example of a specific demographic of older adults aged 75-84. These people are usually recently retired and may be traveling or helping to raise grandchildren. 

“I think that’s a period when you really want to be getting quality, culturally appropriate health care,” Cha noted.

Johnson shared that PPIC’s Understanding California’s Future initiative will build on the report’s findings to establish new objectives for addressing housing, homelessness, affordability of long-term care, and other critical areas. The latest report has put some preliminary numbers regarding the challenges ahead.