California is an invaluable resource when it comes to the US’s homegrown farming. The state produces 100% of the country’s walnuts and almonds; its production also accounts for 80% of the world’s almonds. With over 400 varieties of crops ranging from the vegetable fields of the south to the vineyards of the north, agriculture is crucial to the Californian economy and the country’s economy as a whole. It generates billions of dollars annually. However, the looming threat of mass deportations under the incoming Donald Trump administration means that this entire industry could soon be in jeopardy.
Around half of the 2.4 million farmworkers in the United States are undocumented immigrants. In California, that number can reach 70% in certain areas. The president-elect made “the largest deportation operation in history” the centerpiece of his campaign. While this kind of fear-mongering talk clearly resonated deeply with his core fanbase (as apparent both by the deafening applause at his rallies and by his victory at the polls), it has wide-ranging and drastic implications for the American economy that Trump claims to be so keen on improving.
The potential for a devastating deportation campaign in California could trigger a domino effect that would disrupt the nation’s food supply and further erode the already fragile rights of farmworkers.
“Any plan to carry out mass deportations would be devastating for both the agricultural industry and consumers because any disruption to the industry would drive up prices at a time when workers are already worried about inflation,” Edward Orozco Flores, faculty director of the Center for Community and Work at the University of California, Merced, told EL PAÍS by phone.
The Contradiction of Farmers Supporting Trump
The center, located in the heart of California’s San Joaquin Valley—the hub of the state’s agriculture—is the largest research facility in a rural area. It focuses on research related to farm labor, workers’ rights, immigrant rights, and environmental impacts. “Economists study how a single-digit change in unemployment figures can fundamentally affect the entire economic system. The agricultural industry would be no exception,” adds Orozco.
Despite all this, the eight San Joaquin Valley counties have leaned toward Trump. While the vote count in California is progressing slowly, Trump is leading in all of them. “Anyone who drives down the 99 here in California will see signs from farmers supporting Trump,” says Orozco. “But their businesses depend largely on undocumented migrant workers,” he continues, pointing out an apparent contradiction.
Orozco offers an example: “In the 2010s, there was a case at a chicken farm where workers were organizing and denouncing the conditions. Shortly afterward, there was an immigration raid at that same plant. This should alarm people—the possibility of using a mass deportation policy as a tool to discipline workers and further worsen working conditions.”
Battening Down the Hatches
There is already a precedent of Republican-led states suing the federal government over a rule that allows H-2A visa workers to unionize, targeting people in labor-hungry industries. These advocates also fear that the incoming Trump administration may challenge a Biden policy known as Deferred Action for Labor Enforcement, which shields undocumented immigrants who report labor violations from deportation.
With just over two months until Trump takes office for his second term, millions of workers who produce the food that feeds the nation are waking up every day uncertain about their future. In a few months, they might risk losing their jobs or homes. In the best-case scenario, they will only become more vulnerable, and their lives will become even more precarious. It’s not just inflation; the domino effect of the mass deportation policy would have multiple impacts.
