California Governor Gavin Newsom did his best to navigate a dramatic year full of ballot measures. He spent 2024 shaping initiatives and avoiding some conflicts and ultimately took a key role in a particularly contentious fight over rent control. Newsom kept his involvement strategic, trying to make the most of his influence over state politics, but he yielded only mixed results. He will move into next year looking back on notable wins, a very public setback, and a potentially decisive change in how California handles housing measures.
A Year of Careful Maneuvers
Newsom’s approach to ballot measures this year ranged from active advocacy to behind-the-scenes dealmaking. In March, he championed Proposition 1, a mental health package he personally funded with $15 million from his ballot measure committee. Although it did pass narrowly, the close call provided a warning that pushing progressive priorities would be a challenge even with the investment of significant resources.
By midyear, Newsom had pivoted to streamlining the November ballot. He negotiated with proponents of qualified measures to withdraw initiatives that might complicate the progressive agenda. This effort aimed to protect key issues like school bonds and climate bonds from becoming casualties of anti-establishment backlash.
Key Successes Include Narrow Victories and Strategic Withdrawals
Newsom’s efforts did yield notable wins. He undertook a legal challenge that led the state Supreme Court to remove a California Business Roundtable-backed measure from the ballot. Deals brokered by his team kept initiatives on pandemic preparedness and high school financial literacy off the ballot entirely. His influence also helped delay a constitutional amendment on voter thresholds to 2026 and discouraged a referendum on oil wells.
These successes did not, however, change the tone that had been set by the narrow passage of Proposition 1. State progressives would have to worry about their ability to mobilize voters, even with the backing of the Governor.
Falling Short on Proposition 36
One significant setback came with Proposition 36, a tough-on-crime measure that Newsom strongly opposed. Newsom led attempts to negotiate with the measure’s proponents, and he staged a short-lived attempt to introduce a competing initiative. Despite these efforts, Proposition 36 made it onto the ballot and was presented to voters without compromise. Newsom’s vocal opposition couldn’t stop the proposition once it went to a vote, and it passed with a powerful majority.
The Decisive Proposition 33 Rent Control Campaign
Newsom put some of his most significant efforts into the fight over Proposition 33, a measure to expand rent control. By siding with the “No on 33” campaign, Newsom broke with his party and argued that the initiative would undermine efforts to establish affordable housing throughout the state. Newsom’s position became the subject of political ads across California, though he never went as far as to formally announce his stance in any press releases or public events himself.
This low-key involvement was strategic and proved to be critical to the outcome. Polls ahead of the election showed that voter opinions on the measure were evenly split, and many voters remained undecided on the issue. Newsom’s position, which was amplified significantly by the “No On 33” campaign’s insistence that the measure would undo Newsom’s hard work toward affordable housing, is believed to have swayed some undecided voters.
The narrative was key in defeating the measure, according to proponents who place blame on him. “The Governor killed rent control in California,” said Susie Shannon, a policy director and organizer for “Yes On 33.”
A Variety of Strategies With a Variety of Outcomes
Newsom showcased several different strategies throughout 2024, which included a mix of public advocacy, backroom negotiations, selective endorsements, and strategic silence. He played his arguably most decisive role from the sidelines during the Proposition 33 campaign, during which his public efforts and political maneuvering brought a mix of narrow victories and setbacks. Newsom’s ability to influence state politics remains significant, though it’s difficult to predict what strategies he will employ in the unpredictable year to come.
